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Ep 270: Andrew Wilkinson at C-Suite in Victoria: Bootstrapping vs VC vs PE vs Angel
15 ideas de marketing sacadas de «Ep 270: Andrew Wilkinson at C-Suite in Victoria: Bootstrapping vs VC vs PE vs Angel», de DTC Podcast. Sobre todo de…
- 15 ideas despiezadas
- Fuente DTC Podcast
- Dura 48 min
- Publicada en 2023
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Filtro #1 del buyer: si no dejarías al founder babysit tus hijos, camina
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioWilkinson usa un filtro radical para decidir si hacer un deal: si no dejarías que el founder babysitee a tus hijos (o si te dread estar encerrado en un ascensor con ellos 2 horas), entonces es un mal sign y hay que caminar. Aprendió esto de la manera difícil: no puedes hacer un buen deal con una mala persona.
number one filter that I use is like if I go into the me if I meet the founder and I wouldn't let them babysit my kids then that's a bad sign uh if I got stuck in an elevator with them for two hours would I dread it uh do they make me does my stomach get a bit twisty when I meet them do I feel like exhausted after I meet them anything like that and I will just fully walk and I've learned that the hard way like you can't do a good deal with a bad person so that's number one from there it's really is this a business that can keep going um and how complicated is it and does it have any kind of…
Escúchalo en el minuto 15:28
Contratar CEOs que ya crecieron un negocio del doble de tu tamaño
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioWilkinson busca CEOs que hayan dirigido la #1 o #2 marca del doble de tamaño en industria similar o adyacente. Quiere que miren su negocio y digan 'ya recorrí este camino, estas son las trampas'. Diferentes fases de scale necesitan diferentes CEOs: el founder llega a $10M, otro CEO de $10M a $30M, otro de $30M a $100M. Raramente alguien puede hacer todo el camino.
there I'm also looking for someone who's run a business that's roughly double the size so if your business is doing 10 million Revenue you want to find the person that's running either number one or number two at a brand that's double your size in a similar or adjacent industry you want them to look at your business and go I see where you're going I've already walked this route and here's all the pitfalls to avoid here's how we do it and one of the things I've noticed is that generally you find different people for different scales so you might hire one you might be the founder that takes it…
Escúchalo en el minuto 17:42
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioComo cash flow investor, Wilkinson solo piensa en cómo recuperar su inversión en 5 años o menos. Si compra a 10x earnings necesita doblar el negocio. Si no crece, paga 5x. Si crece muy rápido, puede pagar 30x pero siempre con payback en 5 años. No paga por proyecciones: solo por lo que el negocio hace hoy.
profitable number one like we just don't we don't play in the world of like you know we're not Venture capitalists right so we do do some Venture but it's like totally for fun we expect to lose all of our money we do it because we meet interesting Founders and we like investing in them we are very much cash flow investors and so when we buy a business in my head to be totally honest to boil it down in the simplest terms all I'm thinking is how do I get paid back in five years or less that's it all that so if I buy your business for 10 times earnings I need to double it right or if your…
Escúchalo en el minuto 16:58
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioWilkinson advierte que los private equity deals son estructuralmente favorables al PE: las pref shares les dan 20% de retorno antes de que el fundador vea un centavo. El número de la valoración es irrelevante si los términos permiten al PE comerse la compañía entera. La complejidad está diseñada para confundir al vendedor. Leer los términos antes de firmar es obligatorio.
well I mean every single there's good deals and bad deals in every single one of those right like it all comes down to the terms and I think that private Equity is structured in a way where they always win right so you know they might say to you okay I'll give you the the 100 million dollar valuation but we're going to give you what are called pref shares and that means that they get a 20 return or whatever it is before you make a cent over and over and they can end up eating the entire company it's all it's all very complicated and I didn't understand any of it when I was going through this…
Escúchalo en el minuto 26:26
La decisión de bootstrapping vs raised money debe basarse en matemáticas, no en orgullo
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioAndrew Wilkinson reconoce que拒绝了 invertir en customer acquisition por no querer diluir era una decisión emocional, no racional. Ilustra con el caso de una panadería con demanda excedente: si tienes 400 personas en fila y solo 2 hornos, no raise capital para más hornos es insanity. La decisión debe evaluarse por ROI del capital: ¿puedes hacer el negocio más grande o no?
and I used to think about this in the wrong way I was obsessed with bootstrapping when I started some of my early businesses I would go into hyper-competitive spaces and software I would have a great product but I wouldn't spend any money on customer acquisition because I refused to raise money I just wanted to own it all and control it and bootstrap so that was the wrong decision and the way I would put it is if you have a bakery and there's a lineup out the door and you're known as the best bakery in town for croissants and you have two ovens right and you can only produce 200 croissants a…
Escúchalo en el minuto 0:00
Default alive: si no pudieras raise más, ¿tu negocio sobreviviría?
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioY Combinator popularizó el concepto. Wilkinson lo aplica como filtro: antes de buscar growth capital, pregunta si tu negocio viviría sin más fundraising. Eso fuerza disciplina y evita la trampa de optimizar para metrics que impresionan a investors pero no a customers.
like that well I think um what's the the white combinator talks about the idea of default alive right so you want to be in a situation where if you couldn't raise any more Adventure or you couldn't access debt that your business would actually live I think that's probably the most important thing not going bankrupt in terms of success um I think at 100 depends on the business I think there's businesses and I used to think about this in the wrong way
Escúchalo en el minuto 23:45
El test del founder hit by ice cream truck: ¿puede el negocio funcionar sin el fundador?
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioPregunta clave antes de comprar: si al founder lo atropella un camión de helados mañana, ¿cuánto tiempo puede correr el negocio sin él? Muchas empresas parecen impresionantes pero son el founder quienes sostienen todo. Además, cuando le das a alguien $20M puede que simplemente desaparezca: técnicamente fue atropellado por el camión de helado.
sometimes you don't have a business when the founder leaves so it's that question of if the founder got run over by an ice cream truck tomorrow how long can the business run and often when you give someone a whole bunch of money you know it doesn't matter if they're staying or going if you give them 2 20 million dollars they might just disappear they basically have been run over by an ice cream truck from there we're also assessing what are the levers is there anything we can actually do to improve the business um green flags also I mean again like I want a business with a moat I want a…
Escúchalo en el minuto 16:20
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioWilkinson resolvió ir directo a donde estaban sus clientes: en vez de empezar con conferences small, pagó $20k para ir al TED conference donde estaban los Venture Capitalists y founders que necesitaban diseño. Saltó la línea. Anywhere your buyers or investors congregate, that's where you go. Fishing where the fish are.
going to the Ted conference which you know think of if you think about it I talked to a lot of Founders about this and they say well I don't really feel like I should go to 10 and you know it's twenty thousand dollars and um maybe I'll go to some smaller conferences first and I just like skipped the line I just went right into this room I didn't deserve to be in and by being there we got to design the TED app I got to meet uh Laureen palette job Steve Jobs wife get all you know work with all these crazy people and it just accelerated everything so if there's one piece of advice it's like if…
Escúchalo en el minuto 22:44
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioInspirado en Warren Buffett, Tiny hace deals en ~30 días con contratos simples. Wilkinson se dio cuenta de que los VCs y PE complican las deals a propósito para crear dependencia y agotar al vendedor. La simplicidad es una ventaja competitiva: los founders que han pasado por procesos largos prefieren vender a alguien que no les haga pasar por 6 meses de due diligence.
don't we just become the buyer that we wish we could have sold to and that was when we started tiny and the idea is really just to keep things incredibly simple I mean I don't know if any of you guys are familiar with Warren Buffett Warren Buffett will go and buy a 10 billion dollar business in two weeks and he'll send a one-page contract and we just kind of went well why is Warren Buffett able to do this uh on these Billion Dollar Deals maybe we can do this on 10 million dollar deals or 50 million dollar deals and eventually 100 million dollar deals and that's what we've done so over the…
Escúchalo en el minuto 12:22
Disfruta las ganancias mientras trabajas, no solo al vender
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioEl modelo de grind hasta la exit (páguese $80k/año, viva barato, venda por $100M y después sea feliz) tiene un problema: cuando el PE te acorrala durante 6 meses de negociación, estás tan exhausted y sin spoils que aceptas cualquier cosa. Si ya te diste一些小快乐 durante el camino, no necesitas desesperadamente vender y puedes negociar desde posición de fuerza.
over time so you know what you see a lot of Founders do is they delay gratification so they say I am going to grind I'm going to pay myself 80k a year I'm going to live in a small house and then I'm going to sell one day for 100 million dollars then everything's going to be awesome and what I did was a little bit different I said I'm going to spend I'm going to pay myself kind of as much as I want and so I started paying myself you know a 500 000 a year salary once once I could and then I said every cent above that gets invested whether it's starting a new business or eventually buying more…
Escúchalo en el minuto 41:08
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioWilkinson lleva 10+ años en EO (Entrepreneurs Organization) Forum: grupos pequeños de 6-8 entrepreneurs que se reúnen mensualmente para discutir en profundidad negocio, familia y personal, bajo confidencialidad total. Todo negocio es igual de difícil y los problemas son los mismos: co-founders, investors, payroll. La diferencia de industria no importa. Una comunidad así da mejores insights que cualquier conference.
or 13 years ago to something called EO entrepreneurs organization some of you guys might have been invited to that or YPO and to be honest I thought it was some stuffy douchey business thing uh I went to like one of the networking mixers and it was like all these weird guys in suits I was like 20 I felt like I didn't fit in and my friend goes no no trust me stick with this just do this thing called Forum it's the only good part of this the rest of it is stupid and so what it is is once a month you go into a room usually like someone's office conference room uh with typically six or eight…
Escúchalo en el minuto 44:32
Primer pago de $13k CAD por un sitio de 2 páginas, vs $2k/mes como barista
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioWilkinson cuenta cómo de barista ganando $2k/mes pasó a cobrar $13k CAD por un sitio web de 2 páginas en 48 horas, y cómo ese primer wire lo gastó en una TV plana y zapatos. También menciona que se pagaba $500k/año de salary una vez que podía, reinvirtiendo 80-90% de profits.
two-page website done in 48 hours and I'll pay you 10 grand and I'm just like what the [ __ ] like this and I'm talking 10 grand us so it's a 13 000 Canadian I was previously making two thousand dollars a month doing my Barista job and so I immediately jumped to I designed this website I quit my job on the spot hire a buddy of mine who is like a PHP developer to do some work for me and I make thirteen thousand dollars and I'm like holy crap this is amazing and so from that point on I just started asking every single client that I had hey can you introduce me to one more person and rent and…
Escúchalo en el minuto 36:44
Estrategia de contenidosWilkinson creó Capital Daily (newsletter local de Victoria) como proyecto filantrópico. Empezó con MailChimp, enviando un resumen diario a las 7am. En 2 años llegó a 55,000 suscriptores (30% de la población de la isla). Ahora tiene 12-13 publicaciones y se expande por Canadá sin venture capital, monetizando con advertisers que buscan conexión auténtica con la comunidad.
capital daily well the goal was to crush democracy and so far we're almost there uh no I mean so what happened was um you know I mentioned like you know the thing I fear is more not so much like Global macro economic stuff it's more just like oh is the world you know going in a good direction or a bad Direction um is there going to be Freedom all that kind of stuff and so what happened was uh when all the Trump craziness was going on I would read the New York Times every day and there'd be all this amazing reporting about what's going on in the world and then I'd pick up the local newspaper…
Escúchalo en el minuto 32:46
Oferta y precioAndrew Wilkinson describe su estrategia como 'vender palas a los mineros': en vez de competir en el crowded DTC, su grupo (Tiny) posee las apps top del ecosistema Shopify, los theme businesses, y las herramientas software. Esta posición les da acceso a datos y relationships sin el riesgo directo de marca DTC.
um been much more selling pickaxes to gold miners so we own a whole bunch of the top uh apps in the Shopify ecosystem we have a lot of theme businesses in the Shopify ecosystem so we think it's really hard to predict what brands are going to win and lose and you know we've made some Venture investments in some great e-commerce companies but for the most part most of our energies have been in providing tools and software and in general with direct consumer businesses the only pattern I've tried to follow is just investing incredible people who I think are going to pull it off but it's such a…
Escúchalo en el minuto 3:09
Estrategia y decisiones de negocioWilkinson adquirió Aeropress al fundador original (casi 90 años). La marca era definitoria de categoría (si buscas cómo hacer café, probablemente encuentres Aeropress), estaba en todas las tiendas de café del mundo, nunca gastó en marketing, y solo vendía 3% online. Su teoría: crear un Shopify store y aplicar ecommerce moderno era una mejora trivial con retorno…
stuff so I followed Aeropress for a really long time we had one in our office for over 10 years and one day I looked down while I was making my morning Aeropress and kind of thought like hey who owns this thing and typically when you do that you know it's some douchey Wall Street private Equity Firm or something like that but turned out that it was still owned by the almost 90 year old founder who had started it and the guy was fascinating he was a Serial inventor I don't know if any of you guys I don't know how old everyone here is but if you remember those um bright pink neon pink frisbees…
Escúchalo en el minuto 5:58
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