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The 5 Step Formula to Determine Your nCAC | Perpetual Traffic EP 666

16 ideas de marketing sacadas de «The 5 Step Formula to Determine Your nCAC | Perpetual Traffic EP 666», de Perpetual Traffic. Sobre todo de medición y…

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Ajuste de la ventana de análisis (lookback period) para calcular el LTV según el ciclo de vida

Medición y experimentos

Para calcular el Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV), la ventana de análisis temporal debe adaptarse al modelo de consumo del negocio: en suscripciones o consumibles (belleza, suplementos), la regla práctica es tomar el periodo promedio de retención y duplicarlo (por ejemplo, si la retención media es de 4 meses, utilizar una ventana de 8 meses); en nichos marcados por fases de vida finitas (bodas o bebés), la ventana…

yeah I would look at what is is your average retention period for that subscription so if it is four months double that and look at that period if your average subscription period is four months double that and make that your eight-month look back period um and then if you're in a seasonal space like you're in the weddings or the baby space um you have to look at what is the timeline like if you're in the baby space and you have a product that goes until talking then you're looking at two years right you know the lifetime of your relationship with that customer because once they've aged out…

Escúchalo en el minuto 22:27

El ROAS de las plataformas suele inflarse con tráfico templado en lugar de medir nuevos clientes

Medición y experimentos

Optimizar y escalar campañas basándose únicamente en el ROAS que reportan las plataformas publicitarias genera una falsa sensación de rendimiento, ya que gran parte de esas conversiones provienen de tráfico templado y clientes existentes. La métrica real para validar el crecimiento del negocio es el costo de adquisición de clientes nuevos (nCAC).

because a lot of the platforms that you're spending money on for media are as we've said many times before are going to give you what you want which is Raz the appearance of actually getting new customers great performance when in fact the true measure of whether or not you're growing your business or not is how much money you have in the bank how many new customers you've Acquired and at what cost you have acquired those less because roaz and if you look inside all the metrics inside all the ad platforms roas is going to be mostly based upon warm traffic that's not why

Escúchalo en el minuto 1:06

Ajuste de la ventana de análisis de LTV según el ciclo y tipo de producto

Medición y experimentos

El período retrospectivo para calcular el Lifetime Value (LTV) debe adaptarse a la frecuencia natural de compra y precio del producto: productos de suscripción o consumo recurrente (como suplementos) se analizan mejor en ventanas de 6 meses, mientras que compras únicas de ticket alto (como colchones) requieren ventanas de 7 a 12 años.

start the only thing that changes from our side of where we go is for us the 12-month period is shorter period than we would look at for a lifetime value customer but that depends on the price point of the products so again you talked about like the recurring side of supplements 100% I actually would keep it at a six-month period depending on what is your average subscription size but then when you talked about the glove example I wanted to introduce a third example such as like a single purchase onetime big buy like a mattress yeah when you're bringing in those your lifetime value is seven…

Escúchalo en el minuto 17:40

Límites del costo de adquisición frente al valor de vida del cliente (LTV)

Medición y experimentos

Para escalar y saber cuánto se puede pagar por adquirir un cliente nuevo (NCAC), es fundamental calcular el valor promedio del pedido (AOV) y el valor de vida del cliente (LTV); pagar en la primera adquisición más del LTV genera pérdidas directas incluso antes de descontar el costo de los bienes vendidos (COGS).

think Dan Kennedy said it best of whoever is willing to pay the most will win every time so it's like knowing how much you're willing to pay to acquire new customer knowing what your average order value is going to be and then knowing the lifetime value of that is going to be Mission critical for you to know what you're willing to pay the first time because if you're willing to pay $75 the first time in your lifetime value of 60 you have a loss of $15 without even factoring in cogs so that doesn't work that doesn't work so we're understanding enac is essential for making informed marketing…

Escúchalo en el minuto 5:16

Las tres únicas palancas para hacer crecer los ingresos de un negocio

Oferta y precio

Cualquier negocio solo puede crecer mediante tres vías: conseguir más clientes, aumentar la frecuencia con la que compran o incrementar el valor promedio de cada compra. La captación de clientes nuevos desde tráfico frío es la más compleja, ya que la retención y la frecuencia se apalancan en la marca y canales propios ya existentes.

there's three ways you can grow your business get more customers get them to buy more frequently and get them to buy more stuff when they buy it those the only three that I know of the point is is the first one is the most challenging one because once you actually have them in your ecosystem you have email you have they now know who you are you have some level of brand awareness so as I've

Escúchalo en el minuto 4:00

Rango objetivo de COGS entre el 15% y 30% para sostener marketing y margen

Oferta y precio

El costo de bienes vendidos (COGS) objetivo en productos físicos debe ubicarse idealmente entre el 15% y el 30% del precio de venta (generando un margen bruto del 70% al 85%). Operar con un COGS del 40% al 50% elimina la flexibilidad financiera necesaria para absorber costos de adquisición de marketing, descuentos y rentabilidad.

10% cogs uh you know to 40 50% 5050 is about the highest which basically means you're two to one that's really there's no margin there's no margin for marketing there's no margin for profit price range it's amazing there's lots of flexibility for coupons there's flexibility for marketing and there's flexibility for profit a lot of Brands Target to me should be 30% like you really wanted to be like 15 to 30% if you the lower you can get it the more you're doing um for the first time we say 15 to 30% is what you're targeting

Escúchalo en el minuto 30:30

Deducción obligatoria de cancelaciones y devoluciones en el cálculo del CLTV

Medición y experimentos

Al calcular el Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) es imprescindible restar reembolsos y cancelaciones para evitar sobrestimar el valor del cliente; descuidar esta métrica distorsiona la rentabilidad, sobre todo en esquemas con continuidad forzada o afiliación agresiva, donde los reembolsos pueden alcanzar el 25% y desencadenar altos volúmenes de contracargos.

CLTV not everybody who buys wants to keep your stuff so this is something that I see a lot of people forgetting and uh it's an important step so you got to subtract refunds and cancellations and if you sort of look was about 25% on uh refunds just because there was especially on the second purchase they had a forced continuity that we didn't know about yeah and they were also refund strip account I mean I bet you they had a lot of chargebacks too yeah yeah oh absolutely yeah chargeback big time so that was a huge number so like

Escúchalo en el minuto 24:10

Imputar costos invisibles de almacenamiento y mano de obra antes de escalar

Medición y experimentos

Incluso si se opera desde casa o con ayuda informal, es imprescindible imputar en los costos unitarios lo que costaría un centro logístico (3PL), almacenamiento y empaque. Omitir estos costos en las fases tempranas distorsiona el margen real y provoca colapsos financieros o quiebra al intentar escalar a infraestructura profesional.

very concept with is they underestimate their costs because they don't factor in Warehouse time all the time cost of shipping just like what you said storage like the storage even if you're storing it in your house I will say like if you don't have to pay like you have to factor that in because when you scale you will have that cost creep up on you and you're going to do the wrong thing we worked with the beauty brand they literally went through this and they were bankrupt within two years because increase of cogs so they scaled incorrectly the wrong way so count it even if you're doing you…

Escúchalo en el minuto 32:40

Las exclusiones de clientes en Meta Ads no garantizan tráfico 100% frío

Canales de adquisición

Las listas de exclusión de clientes en Meta Ads no son completamente fiables porque los algoritmos de optimización con frecuencia impactan a usuarios de las audiencias excluidas para conseguir conversiones, por lo que las métricas de tráfico frío deben tomarse con cautela.

Lauren as much as I like wish exclusion ions were better the reality is is that with uh the algorithm doing everything they can to find your customers they're going into your audiences that are have been excluded and the reason that we have seen this is because I'll use e-commerce example we know who our customer lists are and we import them in from clavo and then we'll be able to track back an existing customer who bought from a retargeting campaign that excluded customers yeah and I'm like okay cool that that didn't work so anyways the exclusions are good as a reference point but they're…

Escúchalo en el minuto 7:26

Ajuste de LTV a Net LTV mediante tasa de reembolsos y cancelaciones

Medición y experimentos

Para obtener una cifra realista de valor de vida del cliente (Net LTV o nLTV), se debe restar la tasa de cancelaciones y reembolsos al LTV bruto; un punto de referencia conservador inicial para este cálculo es descontar un 10%.

know their their LTV is $1,000 so we're just going to use a conver conservative very quickly we're going to use 10% is a conservative Benchmark so now that you actually have this a lot of people call this net LTV or nltv which is let's say $1,000 10% of that now you're down to 900 so your n 900 CLTV or actually 900

Escúchalo en el minuto 25:14

Segmentación de LTV aislando a clientes de compra recurrente

Medición y experimentos

En lugar de calcular únicamente un LTV combinado sobre toda la base de datos, conviene medir de forma aislada el LTV de los clientes que han comprado más de una vez en un período de 12 meses; esto permite identificar el valor real de los clientes fidelizados frente a los compradores únicos.

that we like to look at it is I've said before our email lists are set up into three people there there's a subscriber side they bought from you once and they bought from you more than one side so what we'll actually try to do is look at who bought from you more than once and then we'll look at that in a 12-month period before looking at just everyone in a 12 Monon period because we want to isolate the best part of your customers because that's the lifetime value of someone that you're winning with because purchase but that's why I like looking at lifetime value of those who bought from you…

Escúchalo en el minuto 18:54

Cálculo del valor de vida del cliente (LTV) mediante ventana temporal ajustada al ciclo del producto

Medición y experimentos

Para calcular el LTV de forma directa, divide los ingresos totales generados en un período retrospectivo determinado entre el número de clientes únicos en ese mismo lapso. La ventana de análisis (por ejemplo, 12 meses) debe calibrarse según el ciclo natural de recompra y la estacionalidad del producto.

I look forward how many customers bought your products how many unique customers database let's use a 12 months look back look back period And I think in most cases 12 months is good but it also sort of depends on how many times they buy from you what type of product you have divide the numbers so total revenue divided by unique customers equals LTV

Escúchalo en el minuto 10:58

Criterio de inclusión de envío y seguro en el COGS de e-commerce

Medición y experimentos

Al calcular el costo de los bienes vendidos (COGS) en productos físicos, se deben incluir los costos de envío y manipulación (shipping and handling) por estar directamente ligados a la entrega, pero debe excluirse el seguro de envío si este se paga directamente a un proveedor externo.

subtract cost of goods sold cost of goods sold which we do include uh shipping costs in that so you can put would say the only thing I would potentially take out is if you're doing shipping Insurance because that's not money in your pocket that's actually going to another third party solution so they're just making that guarantee so I do not include shipping insurance but I'll include shipping all day long sure because it's a cost that's associated with the delivery of the and deliver your goods so shipping and

Escúchalo en el minuto 26:35

Distinguir costos fijos operativos (SG&A) del costo de ventas (COGS) para proteger la viabilidad del negocio

Medición y experimentos

Los costos de infraestructura y operaciones fijas (como el arrendamiento o financiamiento de instalaciones) son gastos generales (SG&A) y no costos de bienes vendidos (COGS), ya que no varían con el volumen vendido; descuidar esta distinción y enfocarse únicamente en el COGS puede llevar a la quiebra con rapidez.

sgna and that's basically overhead so you just talked about a $1 million distrib distribution facility that is not a cost of good sold that is a fixed cost it doesn't matter how much you're manufacturing or how little you're manufactur how much you're selling or how little you're selling that's a fixed cost that's the kind of stuff that can put you out of business very quickly if you're not watching it and if you get caught up in cogs all right I hope you

Escúchalo en el minuto 35:21

La frecuencia de recompra determina el techo de inversión publicitaria

Medición y experimentos

Una alta frecuencia de compra recurrente (por ejemplo, 7 recompras frente a 2-3) amplía el margen de LTV y permite asumir un costo de adquisición permisible (eCAC) significativamente más alto, desbloqueando la capacidad de escalar el gasto publicitario.

you want to have we have a customer that their average lifetime value is once they get the customer they buy 7even times on average pretty good so their enac it would is higher all things being equal than maybe a supplement company that only purchases two or three times we've had clients that have done that they' had a really hard time scaling up

Escúchalo en el minuto 12:09

Regla heurística de estimación de LTV basada en el valor de primera compra

Medición y experimentos

Cuando un negocio carece de suficiente historial de datos para calcular su LTV real, una referencia inicial práctica es proyectarlo entre 2 y 8 veces el valor de la primera compra o ticket promedio inicial (con un promedio típico de 4 veces).

you can't do number two it's okay a good bench to start is anywhere between two and eight times the price of your initial conversion value so let's say just use somewhere in between there 2 and eight in is about four so we're using $1,000 customer lifetime value so

Escúchalo en el minuto 13:50

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